The Long and Winding Road
Posted: Fri Feb 23 4:50 PM
*** The Long and Winding Road ***
By Jeff Frank, Contributing Editor
Philadelphia, PA (Sports Network) - The college basketball regular season is winding down and many clubs are fighting for their tournament lives. At this stage of the game, it’s imperative to keep an eye on said teams, especially if their opponents have already clinched a top-seed or if they are out of the picture all together.
A perfect example came earlier this week when Wisconsin went into East Lansing to take on Michigan State. The Badgers will no doubt be a number-one seed come tournament time, but the Spartans needed a big-time victory to solidify an at- large bid. What happened? The home underdog Spartans upset the top-ranked team in the country, 64-55.
Scenarios like that will be few and far between with most conference tournaments starting up in early March,. However, the key for a successful handicapper, is to spot them when they do arrive.
With just a short amount of time before the postseason, let’s go through some key conferences to see what teams have the best chance of reaching the NCAA Tournament and which clubs might be solid investments down the stretch.
ACC
Six solid candidates (North Carolina, Boston College, Duke, Virginia, V-Tech and Maryland) are likely to go dancing, but Florida State will not be among the rest. The Seminoles were relegated to NIT duty last season, despite going 18-9 (9-7 in conference play), including a win over Duke. This year, FSU’s big win came against Florida, but will that be enough? The selection committee usually does not choose teams on a downward spiral heading into March, and losing their last five games does not bode well for the ‘Noles.
Clemson is another interesting candidate. The Tigers, one of two undefeated teams back in early January, have hit rock bottom in ACC play, losing eight of their last 10. With road games still left at Boston College and Virginia Tech, don’t expect to see Clemson in the field of 65.
If the ACC gets seven bids, Georgia Tech is the team to keep an eye on. The Yellow Jackets have three huge games left with the Cavaliers, Tar Heels and Eagles and they will be underdogs in all three. With one SU win, Tech should make it to the big dance and if that doesn’t occur vs. Virginia, look for the Jackets to cover the number against NC and BC.
BIG 12
Two of the nation’s top eight teams (Texas A&M and Kansas) reside here, but our focus today falls on the bubble clubs, such as Oklahoma State and Texas Tech. The Cowboys are under .500 in the conference and look nothing like the team that began the season 11-0. Okie State has won just one of its last seven and has not covered a game in 2007 (0-11-1).
A fifth conference bid, after Texas and Kansas State, could come down to Saturday’s match-up between the Cowboys and the Red Raiders in Lubbock. Texas Tech has resurrected itself with two wins in its last three games after five consecutive defeats. Tech lost only by two in Stillwater, so a win at home could lift the Raiders into the NCAA Tournament. It doesn’t hurt having three huge victories over Texas A&M (2) and Kansas on their resume. Regardless of what the line is for the rematch, go with Texas Tech.
One team that could boast a claim for the big dance is Missouri. The Tigers have defeated both Oklahoma State and Tech, but those two "W’s" are the top- rated wins on their schedule, unless one wants to include Miss State and Arkansas. In this writer’s opinion, the SEC, especially the West, is a shell of its former self.
WHAT TO MAKE OF THE BIG TEN?
Wisconsin and Ohio State are the current top two teams in the country. However, the Big Ten could be the most overrated conference in the nation. This would be nothing new for the league since both Ohio State and Michigan failed miserably when given the limelight in football earlier this year.
Indiana is the only other school that’s more than two games over .500 in conference play, while Minnesota, Northwestern and Penn State are a combined 6-34. There is no way that Iowa belongs in the field of 65 at 16-12, yet the Hawkeyes are tied for fourth place at 8-6.
One team that will make the tournament that doesn’t deserve to go is Illinois. The Fighting Illini are 20-9 but have only one credible win on their schedule, a home victory over Indiana.
This is a conference to wager against come March Madness. Even the Badgers and Buckeyes, who will be heavily favored in their opening round games, are good teams to play the other side early in the tournament.
CLASS OF THE COUNTRY
The Big East has five teams currently in the AP Top-25, the most of any one conference. That achievement is tempered a little by the fact the league fields a conference-high 16 clubs. Still, no one can deny that Pittsburgh and Georgetown rank right up there with the top two teams from any conference.
One key question the selection committee will have is how many squads should come out of this conference. Louisville, Marquette, West Virginia and Notre Dame are the other locks, but what about two or three more?
Villanova has the upper hand with quality wins over Georgetown and Texas. Two winnable home games are still left on the docket (Rutgers and Syracuse), and a .500 conference mark along with 20 wins should get the Wildcats in.
DePaul defeated Villanova and also can claim a win over Kansas. The Blue Demons, like ‘Nova, have two easy home games left, so a 9-7 record in the best conference in the country will definitely be enough.
The final slot could come down to Syracuse or Providence, and as luck would have it, they meet this Saturday in Rhode Island. The early prediction is to lay the wood with the Friars. They have lost just one game at home since mid- November and need this more than the Orange. Two road games round out the regular season, and at 7-6 in league play, Providence will be all out to show the committee they belong.
PAC 10
Three weeks ago, this conference was one of the tops in the country. However, it has had more teams stumble recently than any other major conference.
Oregon has won just two of its last seven games, while covering just its latest: a five-point home win vs. Washington State. The Ducks will still make the field of 65 since the selection committee will take the top five Pac 10 teams and they fall in that mix. Unfortunately, going into the postseason on a downward note is not the best way to receive a top seed in the NCAA Tournament.
Another club falling fast is Arizona. The Wildcats recently dropped back-to- back home games to the Bruins and Trojans. U of A is just one game over .500 in conference play with three road games left on the schedule, but like Oregon, will still go dancing.
Despite its recent struggles, the Pac 10 should receive tons of gambler support come March Madness. Last year proved how good this conference is and it’s been even better this season. USC, my dark horse throughout the postseason, is over .500 away from home this season, both SU (7-5) and ATS (7-3) and have the right mix to go a long way.
THE BEST OF THE REST
Two other leagues that will receive more than three bids are the Southeastern Conference (SEC) and the Missouri Valley Conference (MVC).
Florida, Kentucky, Vanderbilt and Tennessee are locks, but things get pretty iffy after that. The winner of the West will surely get an invite, but the more pressing issue is, will that team deserve it? Since presstime, Miss State and Ole Miss are deadlocked at 7-6 with Alabama at 6-7.
The Crimson Tide has a slight advantage as they get to play BOTH the Bulldogs The Crimson Tide has a slight advantage as they get to play BOTH the Bulldogs and Rebels, and only one of their final three regular season games is on the road. Both Miss State and Ole Miss must travel outside their home state twice before the conference tournament.
The Missouri Valley gained a ton of exposure last year and that momentum should carry over for four bids this season. Southern Ill, Creighton and Missouri State are all in, so Bradley, Wichita State and Northern Iowa will have to duke it out for the final slot.
The Braves have just two wins over the other top five clubs in the conference, so their 9-8 MVC mark is a tad skewed. The Shockers are 3-6 vs. those teams and their earlier victories over LSU and George Mason do not look as impressive today as they did back in November. Northern Iowa sports a 5-5 record against the top five and the Panthers get to host Illinois State in their final regular season game.
The bottom line here is the fourth team to make the NCAA’s will be the one that wins the 4-5 game in the second round of the MVC Tournament. Look for Northern Iowa to be that team.
OVER/UNDERS
With approximately one week of the regular season left, a lot is still on the line for most teams, but gamblers should not be limited to just betting on the spreads. The OVER/UNDER plays are a goldmine if handicapped correctly.
Back on January 15, I wrote about VCU and its transition to a more up-tempo game under new coach, Anthony Grant. The Rams had gone OVER the number in six of their previous seven match-ups and were obliterating the totals by 20-30 points in some contests.
Since that time, they have played 12 games and gone OVER the total in 10 of them. In their last 19 games, the Rams are 16-3 to the OVER. Not a bad trend.
I urge all readers to plunge hard and fast into all OVER/UNDER data they find over the Internet because the margin of error in gambling is so small that any edge can make a difference and VCU is proof.
